The war of words between Ukrainian Leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the Russian side over Belarus is heating up, further inflaming the conflict in Eastern Europe.

Asian Dot

Russia stepped in to defend its ally, warning Ukraine not to touch Belarus; otherwise, Moscow would be forced to take military action

Last Friday, Zelenskyy issued a direct, public warning to Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, demanding the immediate removal of signal amplifiers for Russian drones. Furthermore, Zelenskyy threatened that if Belarus refuses to remove them, Ukrainian forces will step in and dismantle them directly—a statement clearly indicating that Kyiv is ready to use military force if necessary.

However, Russia stepped in to defend its ally, warning Ukraine not to touch Belarus; otherwise, Moscow would be forced to take military action.

This exchange of threats has raised suspicions about whether Belarus could indeed become the new battlefield of the Russia-Ukraine war. Regarding this issue, the Wall Street Journal published an article on Wednesday, June 24, 2026, assessing that Belarus has a high probability of becoming a "shadow battlefield" or an expanded front due to increasing political and military pressure from Moscow. However, the likelihood of Belarusian ground troops directly entering the fight remains very low.

Asian Dot

According to the WSJ, the Kremlin is pressuring Belarus to strengthen its military alliance in order to open a new northern front, aimed at drawing Ukrainian reserve forces away from the eastern battlefields. Meanwhile, The Guardian also reported that Russia has constructed five new drone bases near the Belarusian border to utilize the country's airspace for attacks on Ukraine.

Furthermore, based on analysis from the Hudson Institute and international military experts, there are three major potential scenarios:

  1. Hybrid warfare and cross-border drone/missile attacks (Probability: Highest).
  2. Russia using Belarusian territory to launch a new offensive on Kyiv (Probability: Medium - requires 70,000 troops).
  3. Ambushes to cut off Western supply routes into Ukraine (Probability: Low).

In this sense, Belarus may not deploy its own ground troops into Ukraine, but it continues to allow Russia to use its land and airspace. Consequently, Ukraine could launch long-range drone strikes into Belarusian territory, effectively turning the country into an active cross-fire zone. Additionally, Russia could rebuild and reinforce its troops inside Belarus to launch offensives toward northern Ukraine.

In conclusion, Belarus could become a new battlefield in the form of a retaliatory target for Ukrainian strikes against Russian military bases, rather than a direct, large-scale engagement by the Belarusian ground forces themselves.